Trouble in France

LinkedIn blog post, 10/09/2025, by Sven Franck (en français , in Deutsch)

TL;DR – After Prime Minister Bayrou's Harakiri over the french 2026 budget, President Macron quickly appointed defence minister Sébastien Lecornu as new prime minister. One has to wonder how many cards he has left in his sleeve considering trying to pass a similar budget will likely mean a similar fate for the new prime minister within months.

All or nothing

Life is hard in french politics without the "prime majoritaire", first introduced by one Benito Mussolini (who knew) to force through a political agenda. It persists in France up to today: On municipal level, where the winner of elections gets a bonus of 50% of seats. On regional level, where it's still 25%. On national level, parliamentary elections used to be "mid-term" but are now following presidential elections to give whomever elected momentum to build an absolute majority to govern. In theory.

Since the 2024 snap elections, called by President Macron in Theresa-May-fashion with Theresa May-ish results, France is stuck with three even blocks who want to rule alone - the left, center and extreme-right. And with the burn-through rate of Prime-Ministers not likely to recede, we can only but assess that the current political system in place since 1958 has passed its due date.

New solutions? You bet not. In the spirit of its creator, the extreme-right wants to also introduce a prime majoritaire on national level when switching to proportional elections. Winner takes all. 20% of the vote should get you 70% of the seats. Everyone else please remain quiet.

Holding the center is hard

France is not alone. Across Europe, the past decade has seen the rise of far right and also far left movements eagerly playing on citizens fears and frustrations. Their rise is often a result of politics no longer responding to valid concerns and systems that turned into political oligopolies preventing renewal - with France at the forefront.

The solution seems simple: programmatic and political renewal and holding the center. You would think. Instead, not only in France, moderate parties are succumbing to the sirens' centrifugal voices towards the extremes. They align with populists, adopting their positions and amplifying their narratives into political mainstream.

The immediate result: like in France today, the terrain for compromises across political lines has evaporated. In a parliament without a clear majority elected by the population, far apart positions translate into the current french political standstill. Getting the genie back into the bottle will mean reclaiming the political center and learning to compromise. Quickly, because at one point France will either run out of time or prime ministers.

Title inspired by Guts: "Trouble in France"